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Jan
31
Written by:
Godfrey Smith
Monday, January 31, 2011
As the United Democratic Party begins its fourth year in government, the political rumour mills are grinding noisily with talk of an early election.
The view that Prime Minister Dean Barrow will not run again is losing currency; both he and the almost retired Housing Minister, Michael Finnegan, have apparently decided to go, together, once more into the breach.
The PUP’s general election of June 30th 1993 was a surprising fifteen months early, but the justification was sound. The UDP was weak and divided over the Maritime Areas Act. The PUP had just won the city council elections handsomely and Jorge Espat had crushed Howell Longsworth in a by-election for the Freetown Division seat made vacant by Derek Aikman’s bankruptcy. Fifteen months was plenty early, but it was considered “a measured deviation from orthodoxy”.
The measured deviation melted into unmitigated disaster when the British suddenly announced the withdrawal of its troops; Guatemalan President, Jorge Serrano, was ousted and his recognition of Belize’s independence reversed. Accusations of PUP registration of aliens inflamed the electorate; the three issues fused and ignited, leading to the party’s spectacular and unexpected defeat, all within thirty days.
Absent apocalyptic predictions about the significance of year 2012, there are good reasons why Mr. Barrow should be considering an early election during the third or fourth quarter of next year, a mere six months before the next general election is due.
Firstly, people are suffering extremely tough economic times; they recognize that the government is doing little to make it better, but they are not yet blaming them as the cause. Deprivation has not curdled into disaffection.
Secondly, after three years the UDP has lost popularity through natural attrition and by a failure to effect economic and social transformation; but, neither has the PUP gained any real strength.
Sure, the PUP mustered an impressive crowd at last October’s National Convention yet continues to be plagued by deep internal divisions. Significantly, four of the six elected MPs do not support the leadership. Four of six deputy party leaders appointed at different times have resigned. The PUP is definitely not viewed as a credible government-in-waiting.
Thirdly, the once feared machinery of the PUP which, like the trumpet of Joshua, could call the people to arms and shake the very foundation of a UDP Government, lies crumpled and discarded. Its enfeebled blast strikes fear in the heart of none.
Fourthly (and conversely), the UDP’s election machinery which tended to be fragmented, diffuse and pulled together at election time appears to be tight and well-oiled.
Deputy PM Gaspar Vega, like Ralph Fonseca of the old PUP, is the organizational and financial force of the UDP. He plays the eminence grise to Mr. Barrow’s red eminence. Dragged into the UDP by Net Vasquez to bring Hispanic balance (and money) to the leadership, the once reluctant Vega is in full flight and is clearly the UDP’s kingmaker.
Mr. Vega, it will be recalled, defeated Carlos Perdomo for deputy leadership of the party. It was however in the village council elections of 2010 that he distinguished himself, capturing an unprecedented number of villages in the Northern districts.
It is to the UDP conventions that one must look to get a full measure of the man’s ambition and political achievement. The UDP’s policy decision to hold open conventions where even sitting, senior ministers have been challenged is a commendable first for Belize. It deepens the democratic process and shows the UDP as confident, vibrant and self-renewing.
Both the Minister of Health and the Minister of Defence have decisively beaten back challengers; the Minister of Transport and Communications is expected to be challenged soon. In the process of these convention battles, the UDP’s electoral machinery is being whipped into fighting form.
Mr. Vega has featured prominently in a number of these conventions. He supported his close ally, Landy Burns, to defeat sitting MP, Marcel Cardona, in Orange Walk East; it was a humiliating payback for Cardona who had initially challenged Vega for deputy leadership but then withdrew and threw his support behind Perdomo at the eleventh hour.
Belize's Ambassador to Mexico ‘Chendo’ Urbino, another Vega ally, is expected to challenge Mark Pech in the Orange Walk South constituency. With himself, Urbina and Burns in place in Orange Walk, PUP leader John Briceño could find himself virtually encircled by formidable candidates, each with his own private war chest.
In the Corozal Bay Division, he rallied to the aid of another close ally, Health Minister, Pablo Marin, saving him from what appeared to be an impending upset; he secured a victory for his son-in-law, Raul Rosado, over the incumbent standard bearer, Sirvando Samos, in the Corozal Southeast Division. He is expected to attempt to wrest control of the Corozal Southwest and Corozal North Divisions from the incumbent standard bearers, in favor of his handpicked men.
His half-hearted attempt to unseat his old nemesis, Carlos Perdomo, with newcomer, Roger Espejo, in the Caribbean Shores convention was however impotent against the defence of the shores raised by the Perdomo family.
It would be foolish for the PUP to ignore the impressive voter turnout and money spent at these UDP conventions. While not a reliable gage of voter sentiment, these conventions, outside of national or municipal elections, provide real glimpses into the respective party’s organizational, vote-getting capacity.
The PUP just concluded a contested convention in the Corozal Bay division which attracted 1,725 voters compared to the UDP’s 2,700 a few weeks earlier. The UDP’s victor garnered 1,663 votes compared to the PUP winner’s 681 votes. The PUP will no doubt say theirs was a bare convention without bells and whistles. This may be so but it sure sounds like something the UDP would have said.
Fear of this kind of comparison with UDP conventions might help to explain the PUP’s apparent – if not real – preference for endorsement of candidates over open, contested conventions. It undoubtedly saves candidates much expense at a time when campaign financing is not easy to come by, but gives no sense of a candidate’s vote-getting power and appeal.
Three years after the general election of February 2008, this is how the political balance sheet looks: the PUP resembles the UDP of old in Opposition – broke and fragmented; the UDP now resembles the PUP of old – confident, bold and well-financed. This picture is unlikely to change significantly over the next twelve months, in which case, the temptation to go for a fresh mandate might not be only irresistible, it might be good political judgment.
Copyright ©2011 Godfrey Smith
23 comment(s) so far...
Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Godfrey, good analysis though not all your facts are accurate. Raul Rosado is not Vegas son-in-law; Raul's son is married to Vegas daughter.
By Manuel on
Monday, January 31, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Had not thought about an early election before the article. You have offered some perspectives worth thinking about. What about this issue? ICJ or NO ICJ. I believe the politician who campaigns on NO ICJ will get elected. If the UDP does not come out vigorously against Belize going to the ICJ for a ruling on the Guat claim to Belize I firmly believe they will lose. If the UDP does not support NO ICJ, all that the PUP would have to do to win the next election is to campaign very strongly for a NO ICJ vote at a referendum. I realize that the diplomats and many attorneys and politicians believe that a ruling by the ICJ would settle this dispute once and for all. However, the ICJ would very seriously consider the continued practice of Belize “allowing” Guatemalan fishermen and farmers to fish and farm in Belize. The ICJ would then be compelled to rule that Belize must continue to share these and other assets with Guatemala, in perpetuity, with no interference or restrictions, no actual land cession and NO APPEAL! So, early election or not, the politician who wants to win the next election must convince the voters of Belize that he and/or his party will support a NO ICJ vote at the referendum, if an when that ever comes up.
By Mike on
Monday, January 31, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
On the button!!
By To 2012 on
Monday, January 31, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Who di hell cares! If the PUP wins or the UDP wins it will be the same for us ordinary Belizeans. All that happens is that the cronies get a turn to get FAT at the public table. We on the other hand have to continue working hard for little or no pay whether we work for the Blue oppressors or the Red Oppressors is up to our uninformed ignorant electorate who are all waiting for a hand out that will never come!
By SAID OLIVER WILBERT BARROW on
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Would be nice to hear Mr. Smith's views on the Citco elections which are due before the General elections....good article again...lots of insight.
By Miss Ting on
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
i have to agree with some of the other comments it really doesn't matter who wins any election. Many or should i say all politicians think of themselves before helping the people. many of our fellow Belizeans are still jobless and its sad to see these people who have gained little power take over just because of their status in society..
please someone open Belize's eyes and brighten our future...
By Elinore on
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Godfrey;
If your Trojan Horse political construction works; It will give new meaning to the Greeks bearing gifts.l
Mark
By Mark Hall on
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
This really ought to be the time of the third party, but it seems that it lacks strong leadership and vision. It puts the potential new-kid-on-the-block in the same boat as the PUP and UDP.
We need political parties which we can identify to certain philosophical tenets. At the moment, it's hard to make a distinction between the major parties and the third party is never really in top form when it ought to be. If it continues to show itself only when scandal breaks in Belmopan, then it will forever remain a grouping of hecklers on the sidelines.
By RAGM on
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Only people like Godfrey care about elections cuz if the PUP wins he have things to get, Old Guard - New Guard doesnt matter, if they win, all of them will find a way to jump back under the tent! Same as the UDP. As soon as they win, they give their people good jobs and cars and scholarships and the poor are left marginalized.
By SAID OLIVER WILBERT BARROW on
Thursday, February 03, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
what would this new udp mandate be? in 2008 it was "change," "transparency," and "no ashcroft." it seems that the udp has not really delivered on any of these issues, and in the process, have not accomplished anything of substance to validate their term in office.
some advice to eamon:
1.) make the next election about "us" vs. "them;" "blue vs. red." emotions!
2.) do everything in your power to limit voter turnout.
3.) don't waste resources in the north . . . (see article above)
4.) make dean a liability . . . tie his nepotism/big spending around the neck of every
udp standard bearer so that they begin to run from him in public.
5.) let everyone know that dean could leave office at any moment after the election
and hand over PM to Vega . . .
6.) make the cabinet choices and ministries clear before the election.
By bze1980 on
Thursday, February 03, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Another reason why it is likely Barrow will call an early election is because re-registration of voters is due in mid 2012. This was supposed to be done in 2007, but an agreement was made at the top to postpone the constitutionally required re-registration. No reason was given for the statutory amendment, and at that time Belizeans were just ready to go to the polls to elect a new government and were not about to agitate for a process that may have delayed that. But a re-registation, which is supposed to be done every 10 years, is critical to clean up a voter's list that has been corrupted by the politicians. Check to see how many voters who are registered in Queen's Square, Mesop, Port Loyola, Albert, Lake Independence, and many others actually reside there. The figure is somewhere around 40%. That means that the majority of voters who will decide the person to represent the constituency in the National Assembly don't even live there. The last time re-registration was done in 1997, Dean Barrow barely hung on to his seat. So he will be in no mood to go through the process. Consequently, odds are he will call an early election before the process is due, so he will not have to sign an S.I. to delay re-registration for another 5 years.
By barley blair on
Thursday, February 03, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
bla bla bla everything Smith says aint worth listening to or reading. He is Old PUP for Geez sake
By hannah on
Friday, February 04, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
@ bze1980 you are right on the ball with your analysis regarding the legally required re-registration in 2012.
By Higher Level on
Sunday, February 06, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
I don't see the PUP pulling through without the re-registration. It will be an albatross for them in Cayo- Cayo West, Cayo North, Cayo Central, Cayo Northeast is unwinnable for the PUP with the existing voters list. Similarly, in Orange Walk- OW North, OW Southeast and South are imprenetrable with the status quo voters list. In Belize- Port, Queen's Square, Mesop, Collet are write off for the PUP with the present state of the voter's list in those constituency. So without the re-registration, the PUP will enter the general elections down 12 seats. Barrow is shrewd and knows this. PUP strongmen will win their constituencies, but the PUP will not be able to form the government. So the PUP strongmen will have won their individual battles but lost the war- only the country and people stand to lose.
By Higher Level on
Sunday, February 06, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
The fortunes of political parties change quickly. Twas not long ago that PUP launched its juggernaut campaign with its dream team, the Blue Machine was in its best form ever, complete with the roving Freedom Train, portable stage, big screen and of course who could forget the Caliente Girls! The lack of cash and unity is so obvious in the lackluster conventions and even the hand-picked protected candidates themselves show very little spiritor drive. The problem we face in a new election is that there is nothing really that can be promised that has not yet been promised. Our public is fatigued from election flash, and save for the party die-hards on either side, the growing middle is jaded. Dean seems to be playing it safe, not allowing any one scandal to grow to losing proportions; it is clear that he is betting on a second and what will be his last term.
The economic situation is stable at best, with no ground-breaking improvements, and with the fear of an Ashcroft retaliation looming on the horizon, caution is the best road taken by the UDP. The PUP is also playing a careful game; instead of any deliberate action by PUP to talk policy or to make just more empty promises, they've selected to build on the past UDP success a'la ACB and to court and probably feed the many nascent civil action movements to try to fuel a general feeling of public discontent, rather than a PUP solution, hoping for a default win. In a spirit of defense, Dean has held his ground well, with quick diffusion of the various fires led by COLA, Oceana, FECTAB, Belizeans for Justice, etc... The PUP tactic may have a reverse effect of showing a strengthening of the PM's character in the eyes of the public if he can keep the fire pumps going.
All in all, time is running out for the PUP to make a meaninful consolidation and a real attack. Johnny B will have a hard time shaking the spectre of Ashcroft and Belizeans will find it hard to vote for another Ashcroft controlled term. An early call by Dean can only be to the UDP benefit. The barometer will be the Municipal Elections, a win by UDP can most certainly be quickly followed by a General Election.
By Plato on
Tuesday, February 08, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Wow Plato, your comments have only made me realize how manipulative Dean is. I have noted a sudden recent "humbling" of his character, giving into the demands of non-governmental organizations and those who have vocalized their oposition to his policies. It all boils down to the upcoming elections. I wonder whether John Q public is willing to be duped again by this dictator?
By Voter on
Tuesday, February 08, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
Voter, I was u under the impression that voters will typically cry out for a humble leader that will be responsive to the issues that affect society. Surely the trend to respond to and respect public opinion and to become humble is a positive one and bodes well for Belize? Of course this can be taken too far.. A number of these new found celebrities and newly minted interest movements really make me laugh, as every one of them has a selfish, ulterior motive, or is singing to the tune of some unknown piper. Interestingly, each and every one, from Mose to Mrs. Shakron, to Petillo, to Greenwood all continue to sing the PM's praises, while jukking him in di back. Seeing these straw puppets are the only semblance of dissent in the absence of a real Opposition, I would say that Dean is well in
control of his and his party's destiny. On the PUP side, where the right to criticize is worse that the proverb, "Kettle Di Cuss Pot Black", mute is all they can offer.
By Plato on
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
@ Plato: "The economic situation is stable at best, with no ground-breaking improvements"
Unemployment's raging (as SIB to give the real stats), construction is virtually non-existent, energy and fuel prices soaring, agriculture at a fuzzy cross-road, aquaculture cold dead, tourism in an uncertain mess, large layoffs at long-established merchants, Albert Street businesses closing left and right, Scotiabank needing 4 full print news pages for foreclosures, no foreign direct investment, no private or public spending on employment creating projects, and the only thing we can get for a dollar these days is boledo or megabingo???
The economic situation is stable alright, in a stable heap of scat!!!!
By PoorMan on
Thursday, February 10, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
@ Plato: "The economic situation is stable at best, with no ground-breaking improvements"
Unemployment's raging (as SIB to give the real stats), construction is virtually non-existent, energy and fuel prices soaring, agriculture at a fuzzy cross-road, aquaculture cold dead, tourism in an uncertain mess, large layoffs at long-established merchants, Albert Street businesses closing left and right, Scotiabank needing 4 full print news pages for foreclosures, no foreign direct investment, no private or public spending on employment creating projects, and the only thing we can get for a dollar these days is boledo or megabingo???
The economic situation is stable alright, in a stable heap of scat!!!!
By PoorMan on
Thursday, February 10, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
@ Plato: "The economic situation is stable at best, with no ground-breaking improvements"
Unemployment's raging (as SIB to give the real stats), construction is virtually non-existent, energy and fuel prices soaring, agriculture at a fuzzy cross-road, aquaculture cold dead, tourism in an uncertain mess, large layoffs at long-established merchants, Albert Street businesses closing left and right, Scotiabank needing 4 full print news pages for foreclosures, no foreign direct investment, no private or public spending on employment creating projects, and the only thing we can get for a dollar these days is boledo or megabingo???
The economic situation is stable alright, in a stable heap of scat!!!!
By PoorMan on
Thursday, February 10, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
@ Plato: "The economic situation is stable at best, with no ground-breaking improvements"
Unemployment's raging (as SIB to give the real stats), construction is virtually non-existent, energy and fuel prices soaring, agriculture at a fuzzy cross-road, aquaculture cold dead, tourism in an uncertain mess, large layoffs at long-established merchants, Albert Street businesses closing left and right, Scotiabank needing 4 full print news pages for foreclosures, no foreign direct investment, no private or public spending on employment creating projects, and the only thing we can get for a dollar these days is boledo or megabingo???
The economic situation is stable alright, in a stable heap of scat!!!!
By PoorMan on
Thursday, February 10, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
You are all missing one key factor here. Obama's win was what actually propelled Barrow's win here in Belize. If the PUP wins only one half of the municipal elections country wide and if Obama goes down in flames you watch how Barrow will come crumbling after.
By outside the box on
Sunday, July 03, 2011
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Re: Should Barrow Call an Early Election?
The political instability in Belize warrants an early election - this election cannot be stoped by any opposing party or individual. As i see it, the UDP are all powerful and all we can do is pray that all is well until 2018 - the year when a new sun will shine upon Belize and its people, seting the precidence for a secure, developed and prosperious Belize. Despite this election in 2012, and a forgone conclusion September or November will be the months of hardship for a country and our people. Be prepared let this not be a surprise to Belizean; have faith - the wind of change is blowing towards our people and country.........
By Desmond D. Lambey on
Sunday, September 25, 2011
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